Men's basketball: NCAA title picture quite fuzzy, with no clear favorite
We’re in the trench warfare time of the college basketball season, with teams hunkered down and slugging it out at the midway point of conference races.
Ohio State expects another bruising Big Ten affair today at resurgent Wisconsin, where the league-leading and third-ranked Buckeyes have lost nine consecutive games.
Set aside the short-term focus, however, and a larger view of this schizophrenic season hints that a conference title might mean little once March Madness ends, as Connecticut proved a year ago.
The Huskies ended the 2010-11 regular season 9-9 in the Big East, then won 11 straight tournament games and ended up national champions in a sport watered down by early departures of top talent to the NBA.
Another unexpected champion might be lurking in the early February shadows.
“This is the third straight year you look out there and don’t see a truly great team,” ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said. “You’re not overwhelmed by anybody. You don’t look on the floor and say ‘wow.’ There are teams out there that can beat you, but nobody out there scares you.”
Ohio State, like last season, is shaping up as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, along with Kentucky, Syracuse and the winner of the Big 12 race between Kansas, Missouri and Baylor.
Their gaudy records, however, don’t exude a sense of invincibility.
“Every team has some significant glaring weakness or flaw when compared to the other teams in the group,” said CBS analyst Clark Kellogg, a former OSU star. “I can’t quite put my arms around a team and say it’s the team to beat.”
Kellogg includes North Carolina among that upper crust, but doesn’t see a significant gap between a second tier made up of the likes of Michigan State, Duke, Florida State, West Virginia, Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan, Florida and Vanderbilt.
And what to make of Murray State, ranked in the top 10 for the first time? The Racers (22-0) are bidding to become the third team since 1980 to finish a regular season undefeated.
“I don’t see a great team, but I see a number of really good teams,” Kellogg said.
Kentucky, ranked No. 1 for a second week in a row, is again powered by superb freshmen, led by point guard Marquis Teague, tough guy Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and shot-blocking machine Anthony Davis.
Yet, the Wildcats — who Kellogg said would be a tough matchup for Ohio State should the teams meet again — have only two victories against teams currently ranked in the Top 25 (North Carolina and Kansas) and haven’t played a ranked opponent since Dec. 31.
Syracuse, which was top-ranked for six weeks, has been without center Fab Melo for the past three games because of an academic issue, but he has been cleared to play today at St. John’s.
Missouri is seeking its first Final Four appearance, but the Tigers have only seven players on scholarship and one taller than 6 feet 6.
North Carolina is considered to have the most talent but has questionable toughness. The Tar Heels lost to Florida State by 33 points and now must finish the season without injured guard Dexter Strickland.
“The best teams are all vulnerable to getting beat,” Bilas said.
Ohio State (missing an injured Jared Sullinger) lost at Kansas, which lost to Davidson, which lost to Samford, currently ranked 289th in the Rating Percentage Index.
Florida State routed North Carolina and ended Duke's 44-game home winning streak, but the Seminoles also have lost to Ivy League opponent Princeton, which lost to Fordham.
West Virginia defeated Georgetown, but lost to Kent State. Temple defeated Duke, but lost to Bowling Green. Mississippi State defeated West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt and Alabama, but lost to Akron.
“There has been inconsistency, not parity,” Bilas said. “The overall quality of play now is down.”
Ohio serves as a microcosm of the season’s inexplicability.
Xavier went from No. 8 to unranked. Cincinnati won at Connecticut and Georgetown and defeated Pittsburgh and Oklahoma, but lost to Presbyterian. Dayton has victories over Xavier, Temple, Minnesota, Alabama and Mississippi, but lost by 29 to Buffalo and fell at home last week to a 3-18 Rhode Island team.
If this season were a dance move, it would be called the head scratch. So much has made little sense.
About the only thing you can count on is that the Pac-12 is awful. The league is 3-36 against opponents in the Sagarin top 50, and possible conference champion Washington lost at home to South Dakota State by 19 points.
Chaos reigns everywhere else. Strap in for a wild two-month ride.
tjones@dispatch.com